Wheat Plunges Following Russia-Ukraine Deal Signing -- Daily Grain Highlights | MarketScreener

2022-07-23 00:38:03 By : Ms. Cecilia Zhu

--Wheat for September delivery fell 5.9%, to $7.59 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, dropping in reaction to the deal allowing for Ukrainian shipments to resume moving out of certain ports in the country that haven't been operating since the start of the war.

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.6%, to $5.64 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.1%, to $13.15 3/4 a bushel.

Ink to Paper: The signing of a deal between Russia and Ukraine allowing for Ukraine to resume shipping grains at pre-war levels weighed wheat futures down. Prices are back to levels they were at in February, before Russia began its military operations in Ukraine. "The trade is just unwinding all of the premium from the concerns around the Russia-Ukraine invasion," said Don Roose of U.S. Commodities. Mr. Roose told The Wall Street Journal that Russia's agreement to turn back on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is helping boost confidence among traders that this deal will be enacted--although significant concerns remain about how as fighting continues in Ukraine.

Prime Time: The Russia-Ukraine deal and expectations of increased agricultural exports out of the Black Sea had little effect on soybean futures today, with traders instead focused on how weather in growing areas may affect the U.S. crop. "Today's trade is about weather," Jake Hanley of Teucrium told the Journal. "August weather could put a damper on soybean yields, and knock some bushels off of the USDA's ending stock projections." While corn does much of its development in July, soybeans tend to mature more in August, making weather during the dog days of the summer more vital for final soybean yields.

Working Out the Kinks: With a deal between Russia and Ukraine signed, grain traders are now mulling how such a deal will be implemented. "Essentially we think that a signing is good news and is a positive for the world, but does not necessarily change much for the flow of grain--at least in the short term," said Richard Buttenshaw of Marex in a note. Mr. Buttenshaw notes that the ongoing fighting between Russia and Ukraine complicates the ability to enact the deal, and getting people willing to work in an active warzone may be difficult.

Pressure Valve: The deal allowing for Ukrainian grain shipments to resume out of certain ports has been a drag of CBOT grain futures today, but some support came from a weaker U.S. dollar, which helped prop up futures throughout the week. "It was a mixed week for agricultural commodities, as an easing of the U.S. dollar supported some prices, whilst a brighter supply outlook pulled others down," said Capital Economics in a note. Row crop futures have mostly been lower this week, but closed mixed today.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--ADM will release its second quarter earnings report before the stock market opens on Tuesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com